Vol. I · Fig. 1 Regional Share of Population 1881 → 2011

A fourteen-census study

The Indian Census भारत की जनगणना

One hundred and thirty years of demographic gravity, traced across four geographies — East, West, the Hindi belt, and the South — as a share of the all-India total. Drag the year. Watch the balance shift.


the year · वर्ष the first census
1881
total India million souls
Fig. 1 Share of the all-India total, by region — per cent —

drag the census year वर्ष सरकाएँ

Part the Second

ii. The Consequence परिणाम

Three figures follow. The first shows when each region's growth rate peaked — and why the South and the North now point in different directions. The next two show what that shift has done to political weight: how many people each Lok Sabha seat now answers to, and how far the seat count has drifted from the population it represents.


Fig. 2 When each region's engine peaked — % growth per decade —

दर्ज़ दशकीय वृद्धि · Growth per decade, calculated against the previous census. South's S-curve bends downward a full twenty years before North's does.


Fig. 3 One seat, how many citizens — lakh of people per Lok Sabha seat, 2011 —
27.4L One Rajasthan MP speaks for 27.4 lakh citizens.
0.6L One Lakshadweep MP speaks for 0.6 lakh. A 43× gap without leaving the map.

Dashed vermilion line marks 14.25 lakh — India's 2011 population divided by a hypothetical 850 seats, i.e. the one-seat-one-size ideal.


Fig. 4 The representation gap — share of population vs share of seats —
right axis ·
0% 0% 2% 2% 4% 4% 6% 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 14% 14% 16% 16% 18% 18% SHARE OF POPULATION SHARE OF SEATS Uttar Pradesh UP Maharashtra MH Bihar BR West Bengal WB Andhra Pradesh + Telangana AP Madhya Pradesh MP Tamil Nadu TN Rajasthan RJ Karnataka KA Gujarat GJ Odisha OD Kerala KL Jharkhand JH Assam AS Punjab PB Chhattisgarh CG Haryana HR NCT of Delhi DL Jammu & Kashmir JK

A line sloping down left-to-right means that state's share of population exceeds its share of seats — the Hindi belt. Sloping up means over-representation — the South, Kerala most of all. Toggle Scenario 2 to pivot every line toward horizontal: a seat allocation based purely on population would flatten the gap.


Fig. 5 Winners & losers, were the freeze lifted — change in Lok Sabha seats under Scenario 2 —

Every state's seat count if allocation were pinned to 2011 population (14,24,535 people per seat). Positive bars = under-represented today; negative bars = over-represented. The Hindi belt's quietest political fact is that it has been the loser of the 1976 freeze.


Fig. 6 Three futures, one parliament — seats by region, three allocations —
Today 543 seats
+ 50% uplift 824 Scenario 1
Equal constituencies 854 Scenario 2

Under any rule that holds a constituency at a common size, the Hindi belt crosses 46% of the house on its own. The current composition holds its share near 42%.


iii. Dramatis personae चार क्षेत्र

01

East

पूर्व

West Bengal, Odisha

02

West

पश्चिम

Gujarat, Maharashtra

03

North (Hindi belt)

उत्तर

UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Haryana, HP, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Delhi

04

South

दक्षिण

Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh (incl. Telangana)

05

Other

अन्य

Assam + NE states, J&K, Ladakh, Punjab, Goa, Union Territories


Set in Fraunces & Tiro Devanagari Hindi Composed on cream