Three Parliaments · तीन संसदें

§ the three parliaments

Three rules. Three houses. तीन संसदें

Every figure that follows refers back to one of these.

Today आज: 543 seats; Frozen at 1971 populations. The 42nd Amendment (1976) paused the allocation; the 84th (2001) extended it to 2026. seats₁₉₇₁ · held fixed
Scenario 1 परिदृश्य १: 824 seats; Today's allocation, scaled up by half. Every state grows proportionally; no state loses a member. The gentle option. ⌈seats_s · 1.5⌉ per state
Scenario 2 परिदृश्य २: 854 seats; One seat per 14,24,535 people, redrawn from scratch. The arithmetic option — and the one the Constitution originally promised. ⌈pop_s ÷ 14,24,535⌉ per state

Fig. 5 Three parliaments, thirty-six states — seats per state under each rule —

तीन परिदृश्य, छत्तीस राज्य · Each row is a state. Hollow dot: today. Small filled dot: Scenario 1 (current × 1.5). Larger dot: Scenario 2 (equal population). Rows ordered by today's seat count. The connector is tinted by region.

Fig. 5 Were the freeze lifted tomorrow — change in Lok Sabha seats under Scenario 2 —

22 states gain

2 states lose

12 no change

§ unchanged · 12 states & UTs hold their current count: Andaman, Chandigarh, Dadra, Daman & Diu, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Puducherry, Sikkim. Most are already at the one-seat floor.

विजयी व वंचित · Every state's seat count if allocation were redrawn to 14,24,535 people per seat — Scenario 2, defined in the inset above. No state loses a member unless it is already smaller than a single average constituency; the north simply stops being owed the seats it has been owed, on paper, for fifty years.

Fig. 7 Who gains most — in relative terms — % change in seats under Scenario 2 —

प्रतिशत वृद्धि · Bars sorted by percentage, not seats. Rajasthan tops this chart at +92.0% — the state most under-represented relative to its own current count, not the one with the largest absolute gain. Compare with Fig. 6 above: the rank order changes.

Fig. 8 The gentle vs the arithmetic option — each state, Scenario 1 → Scenario 2 seats —

सौम्य बनाम सख़्त · Lines sloping up (vermilion) are states that gain more under strict population-proportionality than under the gentle ×1.5 — UP alone adds 21 seats between the two rules. Lines sloping down (teal) are states protected by the gentle option — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, mostly. S1 is, in this sense, the South's insurance policy.

Fig. 6 Three parliaments, one country — regional share of seats, under the three rules —

Today 543 seats

+ 50% uplift 824 Scenario 1

Equal constituencies 854 Scenario 2

Across the four main regions, even today's frozen map gives the Hindi belt 46% of the seats. Under equal-constituency sizing it crosses 50% on its own.

§ the state-level substrate

iv. The eighteen that move the map अठारह बड़े राज्य

Why the scenarios land the way they do: eighteen state trajectories, indexed to their 1901 population. Divergence in the trajectories is the mechanism behind divergence in the scenarios.

Fig. 7 Eighteen state trajectories, indexed to 1901 — population, 1901 = 100 —

Uttar Pradesh 4.3×

Bihar 4.9×

Madhya Pradesh 5.7×

Rajasthan 6.7×

Jharkhand 5.4×

Haryana 5.5×

Chhattisgarh 6.1×

Uttarakhand 5.1×

Himachal Pradesh 3.6×

Delhi 41.0×

Maharashtra 5.8×

Gujarat 6.6×

West Bengal 5.4×

Odisha 4.1×

Andhra Pradesh 4.4×

Tamil Nadu 3.7×

Karnataka 4.7×

Kerala 5.2×

Each tile starts at 1× in 1901 and traces where the state's population multiplied to by 2011. Delhi and Haryana break the scale — Delhi grew roughly forty-fold. Tamil Nadu and Kerala's curves bend earliest — the South was already decelerating when the North was still steepening.

Set in Fraunces & Tiro Devanagari Hindi ◇ Composed on cream